State Bank of India (SBI) in its Ecowrap research report said today that India’s gross domestic product (India GDP) is expected to grow at 18.5 per cent in the June quarter due to low base effect..
This forecast, however, is lower than the 21.4 per cent growth projected by Reserve Bank of India.
“Based on SBI Nowcasting model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be around 18.5 per cent (with upward bias). The GVA is estimated at 15 per cent,” the report said.
The Nowcasting model includes 41 high frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy.
SBI expects India’s GDP growth to stay in the range of 7.5 to 8 per cent in the September quarter, and 6 to 6.5 per cent in December quarter of the current calendar year and March quarter of the next year based on this model.
India GDP 2021 – SBI forecast
The overall GDP growth is projected to be within 9 to 9.5 per cent, which is in line with RBI predictions, the SBI Ecowrap report showed.
The report observed that the overall consumption trajectory will depend on the recovery in services “Trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting” which supports roughly 25 crore households. Corporate, in the listed space, reported better growth numbers across parameters in Q4 (January-March) FY21, but this trend may soon reverse.
Meanwhile, the report assessed that the average duration of third wave for top countries is 98 days and that of second wave is 108 days, with third wave peak as a multiple of second at 1.8 and second wave as a multiple of first at 5.2 (for India it was at 4.2).